National workshop on mesoscale probabilistic prediction
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- Logistics
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Date
23-24 September 2009 (Two full days)
Location
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Mesa Lab Campus
Main Seminar Room
1850 Table Mesa Drive
Boulder, Colorado 80305
Purpose
The purpose of this meeting is to examine the current status and future directions of mesoscale probabilistic prediction in the U.S. We will discuss potential approaches to enhancing U.S. capabilites in probabilistic prediction, examine possible modes of cooperation for U.S. groups, and develop a strategy for future efforts. A white paper will summarize the results of this meeting.
Contacts
- Bill Kuo (kuo@ucar.edu) Co-chair
- Cliff Mass (cliff@atmos.washington.edu) Co-chair
- Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) Logistics
Program Committee
- Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL
- Zoltan Toth, NOAA NCEP
- David Stensrud, NOAA NSSL
- Paul Schultz, NOAA ESRL
- Tony Eckel, NPS
- Adrian Raltery, UW
- Harry Glahn, NOAA, NWS
- Dave Stauffer, Penn State
- Barbara Brown, NCAR RAL
- Eric Grimit, 3-Tier, Inc.
- Russ Schneider, NOAA SPC
All sessions will take place at the NCAR Mesa Lab Campus, Main Seminar Room.
Agenda
National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction
FINAL DRAFT2 09/07/09
NCAR Mesa Laboratory, Main Seminar Room
1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305
Wednesday, 23 September
8:00 – 8:30 Registration, continental breakfast
8:30 – 8:35 Welcome. Bill Kuo, DTC (5 minutes)
8:35 Session I: Why are we here? What are the future national requirements for mesoscale probabilistic prediction?
Chair: Evan Kuchera, AFWA*
Don Berchoff: National Weather Service goals and requirements. The 4-D Data Cube and FAA NexGen needs (15 minutes)*
Cliff Mass: Requirements of probabilistic information and current issues (15 minutes)*
Panel Representing Major Users and Providers of Weather Information ( 10 minutes each). Future requirements/issues for probabilistic information
Hydrology: Keith Brill, NOAA*
Media: Ian Miller, Weather Channel *
Energy: 3-Tier (Eric Grimit)*
Aviation: FAA representative
Military: AFWA or Navy representative
Plenary discussion: 20 minutes
10:15-10:45 Break
Session II: What is the current status of mesoscale probabilistic prediction in the U.S. and around the world?
Chair, Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel*
The NCEP SREF: Current Situation and Future Plans. Jun Du, EMC, NCEP *
The Met Office short-range ensemble system — MOGREPS. Ken Mylne, UK Met Office*
Overview of Canadian regional ensemble system development. Martin Charron, Environment Canada*
Overview of the Northwest Regional Probabilistic Prediction System. Cliff Mass, University of Washington*
An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: E-RTFDDA – System Design and Verification. Y. Liu1, T. Hopson1, G. Roux1, J. Hacker1, M. Xu1, T.T. Warner1 and S. Swerdlin, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA*
12:00 – 1:30 Lunch Break
The NSSL Mesoscale Prediction System. David Stensrud, NSSL
Ensemble Prediction at the U.S. Air Force: JEFS and Beyond. Evan Kuchera, NCAR*
Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Hurricane Prediction: Ryan Torn, SUNY Albany*
Ensemble Prediction and Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling: Dave Stauffer, Penn. State*
NAEFS and GFS Ensemble Update: Zoltan Toth, NOAA ESRL
Rapid Refresh Ensemble System: Stan Benjamin, NOAA ESRL*
General Discussion: Any other major U.S. or international efforts to note? Further comments on the above talks (15 minutes)
3:15-3:45 Break
Session III: Overview Talks: Major Technical Challenges.
Chair: Ming Xue, OK*
3:45 Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: What is it, What does it take to be effective, and What are the impacts of shortcomings? Tony Eckel, NPS*
4:00 Postprocessing of ensembles. Applications of reforecasting. Computer resource issues. Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*
4:15 Considerations in designing and implementing a mesoscale modeling and postprocessing system. Bob Glahn, NOAA NWS*
4:30 Verification and evaluation of a national probabilistic prediction system. Barbara Brown, NCAR*
4:45 Ensemble-based data assimilation, an essential component of a future mesoscale ensemble system? Fuqing Zhang, Penn State*
5:00 Bayesian model averaging, EMOS, and other ensemble post-processing approaches. Adrian Raftery, UW *
5:15 – 7:00 Reception (tree plaza)
Thursday, 24th September
Session IV: Discussion of Major Issues in Breakout Groups
8:00-8:30 Coffee and continental breakfast
8:30-8:45 Status report: AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*
8:45-9:00 Overview of breakout group sessions, charge to groups. Bill Kuo, DTC. Each group will have a chair and scribe. Each will be responsible to prepare a summary for plenary meeting.
Group 1: How can the various elements of the U.S. meteorological community work together to enable the nation to produce an effective mesoscale probabilistic prediction capability? How should the leadership be structured? Ideas include national advisory committee, permanent working groups, and others. What should be the role of the DTC? What should be the follow-on of this meeting? Chair: Bob Glahn
Group 2: Building a national mesoscale ensemble system. How can a system be created that provides sufficient diversity and detail? How many members, at which resolution, which domains, driven by which large-scale models, using what approach for physics and surface diversity? What are the issues with domain size and lateral boundary conditions. What has been learned by previous attempts that we can apply? What computational resources are required? How can they be secured? Chair: Tony Eckel*
Group 3: Post-Processing. What are the viable approaches to post-processing, including BMA, reforecasting, EMOS, regression-based systems and others. How do we evaluate which are best? Chair, Tom Hamill*
Group 4: Communication and display of probabilistic information. What are the major deficiencies in our knowledge on how to communicate uncertainty information? What studies or tests need to be done to gain the necessary knowledge to deal with this issue? Chair: Susan Joslyn
9:00-10:15 Breakout groups meet to discuss their issues
10:15-10:45 Break
10:45-12:00 Breakout groups continue discussion and prepare short reports
12:00-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:15 Presentation of breakout group 2-4 reports
2:15-2:45 Plenary discussion
2:45-3:15 Break
Session V: Synthesis and Summary. Chair: Barbara Brown
3:15-3:30 Presentation breakout group 1 report
3:30-4:00 Time for specific plans proposed by attendees (5 minutes each)
Zoltan Toth/Tom Hamill/Cliff Mass
4:00-5:00 Plenary discussion. How do we proceed now? Volunteers for preparation of a white paper report summarizing the meeting's findings and recommendations.
5:00 Meeting adjourn
*confirmed talks
Venue
The workshop will be held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab Campus, Main Seminar Room, in the southwest part of Boulder, Colorado. The Mesa Lab campus has an on-site cafeteria where breakfast and lunch may be purchased.
Lodging
Book at Best Western Golden Buff Lodge for a special lodging rate of $74.00 per night. The Golden Buff is located at 1725 28th Street, Boulder, CO 80301, and is on the NCAR shuttle route and near many shopping areas and restaurants. You can make reservations with them at bwgoldenbuff@yahoo.com or at 303-442-7450 (1-800-999-2833). Use Group #538552 get the special rate. The Group Name is Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction.
Transportation
Click for options of transportation to and around Boulder
If you need transportation to and from the Golden Buff Lodge to the NCAR Mesa Lab, please let Pam Johnson know when you register.
Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the workshop.
Please provide the following contact information.
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Name to be used for Name Badge:
Do you need transportation between the Golden Buff and the NCAR Mesa Lab? [ ] Yes [ ] No
Registration is free. This workshop is sponsored by DTC and NWS/OST
Presentations
Wednesday, 23 September
8:00 – 8:30 Registration, continental breakfast
8:30 – 8:35 Welcome. Bill Kuo, DTC (5 minutes)
Don Berchoff: National Weather Service goals and requirements. The 4-D Data Cube and FAA NexGen needs (15 minutes)*
Cliff Mass: Requirements of probabilistic information and current issues (15 minutes)*
Panel Representing Major Users and Providers of Weather Information ( 10 minutes each). Future requirements/issues for probabilistic information
Hydrology: Keith Brill, NOAA*
Media: Ian Miller, Weather Channel *
Energy: 3-Tier (Eric Grimit)*
Aviation: FAA representative
Military: AFWA or Navy representative
Plenary discussion: 20 minutes
10:15-10:45 Break
Session II: What is the current status of mesoscale probabilistic prediction in the U.S. and around the world? Chair, Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel*
The NCEP SREF: Current Situation and Future Plans. Jun Du, EMC, NCEP *
The Met Office short-range ensemble system — MOGREPS. Ken Mylne, UK Met Office*
Overview of Canadian regional ensemble system development. Martin Charron, Environment Canada*
Overview of the Northwest Regional Probabilistic Prediction System. Cliff Mass, University of Washington*
An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: E-RTFDDA – System Design and Verification. Y. Liu1, T. Hopson1, G. Roux1, J. Hacker1, M. Xu1, T.T. Warner1 and S. Swerdlin, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA*
12:00–1:30 Lunch Break
The NSSL Mesoscale Prediction System. David Stensrud, NSSL
Ensemble Prediction at the U.S. Air Force: JEFS and Beyond. Evan Kuchera, NCAR*
Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Hurricane Prediction: Ryan Torn, SUNY Albany*
Ensemble Prediction and Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling: Dave Stauffer, Penn. State*
NAEFS and GFS Ensemble Update: Zoltan Toth, NOAA ESRL
Rapid Refresh Ensemble System: Stan Benjamin, NOAA ESRL*
3:15-3:45 Break
Session III: Overview Talks: Major Technical Challenges. Chair: Ming Xue, OK*
Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: What is it, What does it take to be effective, and What are the impacts of shortcomings? Tony Eckel, NPS*
Postprocessing of ensembles. Applications of reforecasting. Computer resource issues. Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*
Considerations in designing and implementing a mesoscale modeling and postprocessing system. Bob Glahn, NOAA NWS*
Verification and evaluation of a national probabilistic prediction system. Barbara Brown, NCAR*
Ensemble-based data assimilation, an essential component of a future mesoscale ensemble system? Fuqing Zhang, Penn State*
Bayesian model averaging, EMOS, and other ensemble post-processing approaches. Adrian Raftery, UW *
Thursday, 24th September
8:00-8:30 Coffee and continental breakfast
Session IV: Discussion of Major Issues in Breakout Groups
8:30-8:45 Status report: AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*
8:45-9:00 Overview of breakout group sessions, charge to groups. Bill Kuo, DTC. Each group will have a chair and scribe. Each will be responsible to prepare a summary for plenary meeting.
Group 1: How can the various elements of the U.S. meteorological community work together to enable the nation to produce an effective mesoscale probabilistic prediction capability? How should the leadership be structured? Ideas include national advisory committee, permanent working groups, and others. What should be the role of the DTC? What should be the follow-on of this meeting? Chair: Bob Glahn
Group 2: Building a national mesoscale ensemble system. How can a system be created that provides sufficient diversity and detail? How many members, at which resolution, which domains, driven by which large-scale models, using what approach for physics and surface diversity? What are the issues with domain size and lateral boundary conditions. What has been learned by previous attempts that we can apply? What computational resources are required? How can they be secured? Chair: Tony Eckel*Group 3: Post-Processing. What are the viable approaches to post-processing, including BMA, reforecasting, EMOS, regression-based systems and others. How do we evaluate which are best? Chair, Tom Hamill*
Group 4: Communication and display of probabilistic information. What are the major deficiencies in our knowledge on how to communicate uncertainty information? What studies or tests need to be done to gain the necessary knowledge to deal with this issue? Chair: Susan Joslyn
10:15-10:45 Break
10:45-12:00 Breakout groups continue discussion and prepare short reports
12:00-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:15 Presentation of breakout group 2-4 reports 2:15-2:45 Plenary discussion
2:45-3:15 Break
Session V: Synthesis and Summary. Chair: Barbara Brown
3:15-3:30 Presentation breakout group 1 report
3:30-4:00 Time for specific plans proposed by attendees (5 minutes each) Zoltan Toth/Tom Hamill/Cliff Mass
4:00-5:00 Plenary discussion. How do we proceed now? Volunteers for preparation of a white paper report summarizing the meeting's findings and recommendations.
5:00 Meeting adjourn
*confirmed talks