DTC Winter Forecast Experiment (DWFE)

  • Overview
  • Experiment Design

DWFE Experiment wrap-up

The DTC Winter Forecast Experiment was conducted from January 15 to March 31, 2005. The summary of its motiviation and experiment design are here (and at the links, left) for archival purposes. The forecast images can be viewed on the JOSS archival catalogue site.

Motivation

The DTC Winter Forecast Experiment (DWFE) was motivated by the needs of the National Weather Service (NWS) for improved model guidance to support their winter weather forecast and warning mission. The DWFE experiment uses high-resolution (5 km) NWP models with improved physics, in an effort to offer a solution. DWFE will run from December 2004 through March 2005. This experiment follows successful research conducted during BAMEX (website) in the summer of 2003, which involved extensive interactions with operational forecasters. Feedback from the forecasters indicated considerable value in the high resolution information.

Visit the DTC Real-time Forecast page to view and compare some of the results of this experiment, and to provide feedback.

Forecaster Testimonials from the summer experiment

...this model has given the WFO forecast staff excitement for the future... without question, it has been the explicit convection that has made this model so useful...

...I would put continuing the 4 km BAMEX runs for the central region through the convective season at or near the top of my funding priorities...

...I, like other forecasters at our office, really like the 4 km BAMEX model run and don't want it to go away. The reflectivity forecasts were really very helpful, and almost uncanny...

Design of DWFE

The WRF Developmental Testbed Center is conducting a high resolution NWP forecast experiment during the winter season:

  • Period: December 2004-March 2005
  • Horizontal resolution: 5km
  • Vertical resolution: 38 levels
  • Domain Size: CONUS
  • Emphasis: Eastern US
  • Forecast period: 48 hours
  • Cycle: 00 UTC
  • Dynamic Cores: ARW and NMM
  • Parameterizations:
    • ARW NMM
    • Microphysics WSM5 Ferrier
    • Radiation RRTM/Dudhia MYJ
    • Plantery Boundary Layer YSU Eta
    • Land Surface Model Noah Noah
    • Cumulus none none

For more information on WRF, go to http://wrf-model.org.

Initial and boundary conditions for these forecasts are based on Eta 212 grids. In addition, a high-resolution land-surface data assimilation system (HRLDAS) is being used to specify the initial land surface fields for the ARW forecasts (insert link to HRLDAS document).

Objectives

  • Evaluate the value of high-resolution NWP forecasts over a large domain during the winter to determine whether operational forecasters find the high-resolution precipitation forecasts useful
  • Identify whether other small-scale flow features resolved by the high-resolution grids have forecast value.