DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET) Workshop
- About
- Schedule and Presentations
Date
18-19 August 2010
Location
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Foothills Lab Campus
EOL Atrium
3450 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, Colorado 80301
Overview
A Mesoscale Ensemble Workshop will be held in Boulder August 18-19, 2010, to discuss working plans for the DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET). A primary motivation for this workshop is to share user ideas for the structure and objectives of the DET. There will be opportunities for invited and volunteered presentations and posters. After the workshop, the WRF Ensemble Working Group will meet to review and offer suggestions for DET plans. Prior to the workshop, the NUOPC workshop will be held in Boulder. (http://www.dtcenter.org/events/workshops10/nuopc/index.php)
Contacts
- Barbara Brown (bgb@ucar.edu) Co-chair
- Ed Tollerud (Edward.Tollerud@noaa.gov) Co-chair
- Zoltan Toth (Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov) Co-chair
- Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) Logistics
Sessions on Wednesday will take place at the NCAR Foothills Lab Campus, FL2-1001,
Small Seminar Room and Thursday at the Foothills Lab Campus, EOL Atrium.
Working Group session on Friday will be held at NOAA/ESRL David Skaggs Research
Center, Room GB124.
Agenda
Wednesday, August 18
Welcome, Introductions, Purpose, Agenda, Logistics
1:00 - 1:10 Bill Kuo, Director, DTC
1:10 - 1:15 Barb Brown, Director, JNT
1:15 - 1:35 DET and Meeting Objectives, Zoltan Toth, Task Lead
1:35 - 1:40 Introductions by/of attendees
Challenges to Advancing Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasting (invited talks)
1:40 - 2:00 Use and Misuse of Probabilistic Forecasts (Susan Joslyn)
2:00 - 2:20 NCEP Ensemble Status and Future Plans (Geoff DiMego)
2:20 - 2:40 Convection-Permitting Ensembles During the HWT (Ming Xue)
2:40 - 3:00 Comparison of Convection-Permitting Ensembles with
Parameterized Convection Ensembles (Adam Clark)
3:00 - 3:30 Break
3:30 - 3:50 Survey of Ensemble Post-Processing (Tom Hamill)
3:50 - 4:10 Ensemble Data Assimilation Opportunities and Challenges
(Fuqing Zhang)
4:10 - 4:30 National Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction Goals and Plan
(Tony Eckel)
4:30 - 4:50 NUOPC Summary and discussion of links between
DTC and NUOPC (Scott Sandgathe)
4:50 - 5:10 AFWA ensemble science (Josh Hacker)
5:10 - 5:15 Closing remarks for Day One (Zoltan Toth)
5:15 - 7:00 Poster session and Reception (Reception starts at 5:30)
Thursday, August 19
8:00 - 8:30 Breakfast, coffee
DET Module Descriptions
8:30 - 8:50 Overall Software Design (Paula McCaslin)
Ensemble Configuration (Linda Wharton)
8:50 - 9:10 Initial Perturbations (Isidora Jankov)
9:10 - 9:30 Model Perturbations (Isidora Jankov and Huiling Yuan)
9:30 - 9:50 Statistical Postprocessing (Huiling Yuan)
9:50 - 10:10 Product Generation (Tara Jensen and Paula McCaslin)
10:10 - 10:30 Break
10:30 - 10:50 Verification (Ed Tollerud)
10:50 - 11:10 Testing and Evaluation Plan (Barb Brown)
11:10 - 11:30 HMT and HWT Collaboration with DET (Ed Tollerud and Tara Jensen)
11:30 - 12:00 Discussion on DET Activities and Plans (Zoltan Toth)
12:00 - 1:00 Lunch
Breakout Group Discussions
1:00 - 2:30 Breakout Group discussions on DET Infrastructure – each covers
2 modules
WG1 - Ensemble Configuration and Initial Pertubation
WG2 - Model Pertubation and Statistical Postprocessing
WG3 - Products, Display and Verification
2:30 - 3:00 Breakout Group summaries and Further Discussion
3:00 - 3:30 Break
3:30 - 5:00 Breakout Group discussions on testing of community developed
methods
WG1 - Ensemble Configuration and Initial Pertubation
WG2 - Model Pertubation and Statistical Postprocessing
WG3 - Products, Display and Verification
5:00 - 5:30 Breakout Group summaries and plenary discussion
5:30 Adjourn
Dinner on your own
Friday, August 20
8:00 - 8:30 Coffee, breakfast
WRF Ensemble Working Group Meeting (closed session)
8:30 - 11:30 WRF Ensemble Working Group Meeting
11:30 - 12:30 Meeting of WG co-chairs and DET Task Lead
Venue
The workshop will be held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Foothills Lab Campus, EOL Atrium, in the northeast part of Boulder, Colorado. The Foothills Lab campus has an on-site cafeteria where breakfast and lunch may be purchased.
Lodging
Book at Best Western Golden Buff Lodge for a special lodging rate of $84.00 per night. The Golden Buff is located at 1725 28th Street, Boulder, CO 80301, and is on the NCAR shuttle route and near many shopping areas and restaurants. You can make reservations with them at bwgoldenbuff@yahoo.com or at 303-442-7450 (1-800-999-2833). Use Group #7863 to get the special rate. The Group Name is DTC Workshops.
Transportation
Click for options of transportation to and around Boulder
If you need transportation to and from the Golden Buff Lodge to the NCAR Foothills Lab, please let Pam Johnson know when you register.
Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the workshop.
Please provide the following contact information.
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Name to be used for Name Badge:
Will you be submitting an abstract? [ ] Yes [ ] No
If yes, please send a title and short abstract to johnsonp@ucar.edu with preference
of oral or poster.
Deadlines for abstract submission is July 15, 2010.
Do you need transportation between the Golden Buff and the NCAR Mesa Lab?
[ ] Yes [ ] No
Registration is free. This workshop is sponsored by DTC.
Presentations
Wednesday, 23 September
8:00 – 8:30 Registration, continental breakfast
8:30 – 8:35 Welcome. Bill Kuo, DTC (5 minutes)
Don Berchoff: National Weather Service goals and requirements. The 4-D Data Cube and FAA NexGen needs (15 minutes)*
Cliff Mass: Requirements of probabilistic information and current issues (15 minutes)*
Panel Representing Major Users and Providers of Weather Information ( 10 minutes each). Future requirements/issues for probabilistic information
Hydrology: Keith Brill, NOAA*
Media: Ian Miller, Weather Channel *
Energy: 3-Tier (Eric Grimit)*
Aviation: FAA representative
Military: AFWA or Navy representative
Plenary discussion: 20 minutes
10:15-10:45 Break
Session II: What is the current status of mesoscale probabilistic prediction in the U.S. and around the world? Chair, Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel*
The NCEP SREF: Current Situation and Future Plans. Jun Du, EMC, NCEP *
The Met Office short-range ensemble system — MOGREPS. Ken Mylne, UK Met Office*
Overview of Canadian regional ensemble system development. Martin Charron, Environment Canada*
Overview of the Northwest Regional Probabilistic Prediction System. Cliff Mass, University of Washington*
An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: E-RTFDDA – System Design and Verification. Y. Liu1, T. Hopson1, G. Roux1, J. Hacker1, M. Xu1, T.T. Warner1 and S. Swerdlin, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA*
12:00–1:30 Lunch Break
The NSSL Mesoscale Prediction System. David Stensrud, NSSL
Ensemble Prediction at the U.S. Air Force: JEFS and Beyond. Evan Kuchera, NCAR*
Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Hurricane Prediction: Ryan Torn, SUNY Albany*
Ensemble Prediction and Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling: Dave Stauffer, Penn. State*
NAEFS and GFS Ensemble Update: Zoltan Toth, NOAA ESRL
Rapid Refresh Ensemble System: Stan Benjamin, NOAA ESRL*
3:15-3:45 Break
Session III: Overview Talks: Major Technical Challenges. Chair: Ming Xue, OK*
Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: What is it, What does it take to be effective, and What are the impacts of shortcomings? Tony Eckel, NPS*
Postprocessing of ensembles. Applications of reforecasting. Computer resource issues. Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*
Considerations in designing and implementing a mesoscale modeling and postprocessing system. Bob Glahn, NOAA NWS*
Verification and evaluation of a national probabilistic prediction system. Barbara Brown, NCAR*
Ensemble-based data assimilation, an essential component of a future mesoscale ensemble system? Fuqing Zhang, Penn State*
Bayesian model averaging, EMOS, and other ensemble post-processing approaches. Adrian Raftery, UW *
Thursday, 24th September
8:00-8:30 Coffee and continental breakfast
Session IV: Discussion of Major Issues in Breakout Groups
8:30-8:45 Status report: AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*
8:45-9:00 Overview of breakout group sessions, charge to groups. Bill Kuo, DTC. Each group will have a chair and scribe. Each will be responsible to prepare a summary for plenary meeting.
Group 1: How can the various elements of the U.S. meteorological community work together to enable the nation to produce an effective mesoscale probabilistic prediction capability? How should the leadership be structured? Ideas include national advisory committee, permanent working groups, and others. What should be the role of the DTC? What should be the follow-on of this meeting? Chair: Bob Glahn
Group 2: Building a national mesoscale ensemble system. How can a system be created that provides sufficient diversity and detail? How many members, at which resolution, which domains, driven by which large-scale models, using what approach for physics and surface diversity? What are the issues with domain size and lateral boundary conditions. What has been learned by previous attempts that we can apply? What computational resources are required? How can they be secured? Chair: Tony Eckel*Group 3: Post-Processing. What are the viable approaches to post-processing, including BMA, reforecasting, EMOS, regression-based systems and others. How do we evaluate which are best? Chair, Tom Hamill*
Group 4: Communication and display of probabilistic information. What are the major deficiencies in our knowledge on how to communicate uncertainty information? What studies or tests need to be done to gain the necessary knowledge to deal with this issue? Chair: Susan Joslyn
10:15-10:45 Break
10:45-12:00 Breakout groups continue discussion and prepare short reports
12:00-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:15 Presentation of breakout group 2-4 reports 2:15-2:45 Plenary discussion
2:45-3:15 Break
Session V: Synthesis and Summary. Chair: Barbara Brown
3:15-3:30 Presentation breakout group 1 report
3:30-4:00 Time for specific plans proposed by attendees (5 minutes each) Zoltan Toth/Tom Hamill/Cliff Mass
4:00-5:00 Plenary discussion. How do we proceed now? Volunteers for preparation of a white paper report summarizing the meeting's findings and recommendations.
5:00 Meeting adjourn
*confirmed talks