5th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop
- About
- Schedule and Presentations
- Venue and Lodging
- Registration
- Remote Attendance
Date
May 10-12, 2011
Location
Holiday Inn Laurel West, Laurel, Maryland
Overview
The 5th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop will be held at a hotel near Washington DC in Maryland during the period May 10-12, 2011. The purpose of this workshop is to bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NCEP ensembles, to review progress on the generation and use of operational products since our last meeting in May 2008, and to discuss plans for future efforts and collaborations. The main goal of the workshop is to support NWS in its transition from single value to probabilistic forecasting. The ultimate goal is to convey forecast uncertainty in a user relevant form. Collaborative efforts on the national (NUOPC, DTC) and international (NAEFS, GIFS/TIGGE) scale will also be discussed. The workshop is organized by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center jointly with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Ensemble Testbed (DET) whose goal is to facilitate the testing and transition of newly developed methods into operations, with support from the Office of Science and Technology (OST) of NWS.
- NCEP operational ensemble systems;
- NCEP generated ensemble products;
- NWS ensemble based probabilistic products (or guidance);
- NCEP service centers’ reviews and future requests;
- NWS regions and WFO/RFC reviews and requests;
- National research/development community, private sector, DET, NUOPC reviews;
- International developers/users reviews (including NAEFS, GIFS/TIGGE);
- Ensemble data and product distribution, access and demonstration;
- Working group discussions
Contacts
- Barbara Brown (bgb@ucar.edu) Co-chair
- Zoltan Toth Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov Co-chair
- Yuejian Zhu Yuejian.Zhu@noaa.gov Co-chair
- Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) Logistics
Agenda
May 10 – Tuesday
8:00-8:30am Welcome, system set up and logistics
8:30-8:50am Bill Lapenta: Opening remark (Themes and goals of workshop)
8:50-10:00am NCEP ensemble system (Chairs: Lapenta/Zhu)
Jun Du: SREF (15/5)i
Dinhchen Hou: GEFS (15/5)i
Sura Saha: CFSRR (8/2)
Jose-Henrique Alves: Wave ensemble (8/2)
Question and discussion (10)
10:00-10:20am Coffee Break
10:20-12:00am NCEP generated ensemble products (Chairs: Novak/Zhu)
Jun Du/Binbin Zhou: HREF/VSREF (15/5)
Bo Cui: NAEFS products (15/5)
Yan Luo: Bias correction for precipitation forecast (15/5)
Guangping Lou: Ensemble tracks (10/5) <
Dan Collins: week-2 products (10/5)
Question and discussion (10)
12:00-1:30pm Lunch break
1:30-2:20pm NWS ensemble based products & applications (Chairs: Novak/Zhu)
John Wagner: EKDMOS (15/5)
Julie Demargne: Ensemble application for hydrology (15/5)
Question and discussion (10)
2:20-3:10pm NCEP service centers, WFO/RFC reviews and requests
(Chair: Matt Peroutka)
Dave Novak: HPC’s review (25/5)
Joseph Sienkiewicza: OPC’s review (15/5)
3:10-3:30pm Coffee Break
3:30-5:30pm NCEP service centers, WFO/RFC reviews and requests (cont.)
Israel Jirak: SPC’s review (15/5)
Steve Silberberg: AWC’s review (15/5)
Dave Unger: CPC’s review (15/5)
Richard Grumm: WFO application of ensemble forecast (15/5)
Randy Graham: demonstration of ensemble applications
(12/3) – remote
Richard Pasch: NHC’s review (12/3) – remote
Question and discussion (10)
5:30-6:30pm Reception
6:30pm End of day
8:00-8:30am System set up
8:30-9:50am International community review (NAEFS, TIGGE/GIFS) (Chair: Toth)
Ken Mylne/Richard Swinbank: Application of Ensembles at the
Met Office (15/5) - remote
Benoit Archambault: Canadian Ensemble System and Products:
An Update (15/5)
Rene Lobato: NAEFS application at SNM/Mexico (15/5)
Anastasia Bundel: Ensemble system and application in Russia (15/5)
9:50-10:10am Coffee break
10:10-11:20am International community review (NAEFS, TIGGE/GIFS)
Xiaoli Li/Kan Dai: Ensemble application in China (15/5)
Hsiao-Chung Tsai : NCEP GEFS Application at CWB (15/5)
Malaquias Pena: NA THORPEX’s connection (12/3)
Zoltan Toth: Plans for the Global Interactive Forecast System –
GIFS (12/3)
11:20-12:10am National research/development community and private sectors
(Chairs: Brown/Hamill)
Peter Manousos: Private sector review (first energy corp) (15/5)
Tom Hamill: Reforecast/Hybrid and EnKF (25/5)
1:30-3:00pm National research/development community and private sectors
(Chairs: Brown/Hamill)
Tony Eckel: R &D priority of uncertainty forecast – remote (15/5)
Tom Hamill: Summary for HFIP ensemble workshop (15/5)
Brian Etherton: DTC/DET’s connection (15/5)
Dave McCarren: NUOPC status and plan (15/5)
Bill Kuo: High resolution ensemble assimilation for tropical storm
(15/5)
3:20-5:10pm National research/development community, private sectors
(Chairs: Brown/Hamill)
Jiayi Peng: Hurricane track forecast from multi-model ensembles
(15/5)
Paula McCaslin: Ensemble-related products and tools (15/5)
)Barbra Brown: Ensemble verification (15/5)
Scott Rentschler/Evan Kuchera, Joshua Hacker/Judith Berner:
The Air Force Weather Ensemble Prediction System (AFWEPS) and
Further development in AFWA’s Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction
System (25/5)
Discussion and question (10)
5:10pm End of day
May 12 – Thursday 8:00-8:30am System set up, preparing
8:30-10:10am Data distribution, access, demonstration and training
(Chair: Brian Etherton)
Jordan Alpert: Ensemble data access through NOMADS (25/5)
Bill Bua: COMET education (15/5)
Richard Wobus: GEFS’s data distribution (15/5)
Jun Du: SREF’s data distribution (15/5)
Discussion and question (10)
10:10-10:30am Coffee Break
10:30-12:00pm Zoltan Toth/Yuejian Zhu: Summary from last ensemble workshop
(25/5)
Working group discussion (system configuration, post-processing,
product generation, data access)
1:30-3:00pm Working groups discussion (system configuration, post-processing,
product generation, data access)
3:00-3:20pm Break
3:20-4:00pm Working groups report and summary
4:00-4:20pm Louis Uccellini: Conclusion remark
4:20pm Adjourn
Leading for group discussion: Tom Hamill and Brian Etherton – system configuration
Zoltan Toth and Matt Peroutka – post process
Dave Novak and Jun Du – product generation
Jordon Aplert and Barbara Brown – data access
Venue
The workshop will be held at the Holiday Inn Laurel West, 15101 Sweitzer Ln, Laurel, MD 20707.
Lodging
Book at Holiday Inn Laurel West for a special lodging rate of $119 per night. The Holiday Inn Laurel West is located at 15101 Sweitzer Ln, Laurel, MD 20707, and is close to shopping areas and restaurants. You can make reservations with them at 301-776-5300 or at http://www.holidayinn.com/hotels/gb/en/laurel/waslm/hoteldetail The Group Name is Ensemble Users Workshop and Group Block Code is EUW.
Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the workshop.
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Registration is free. This workshop is sponsored by OST/NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center jointly with NCAR/DTC Ensemble Testbed.
The workshop presentations will be available for remote attendance by GoTo Meeting.
If you'd like to participate remotely, email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu)
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Meeting ID: 447-614-248
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