NUOPC USER WORKSHOP
- About
- Schedule and Presentations
Date
31 May - 2 June 2011
Location
NOAA Sand Point, Seattle, WA
Overview
Workshop Goal: Develop better, ensemble-derived, decision support products through dialog between developers and users.Background: The National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC), (http://www.weather.gov/nuopc) is a Tri-Agency (Air Force, Navy, NOAA) effort to improve interoperability. The addition of the Navy/FNMOC global ensemble to the NOAA/NCEP global ensemble constitutes the National Unified Ensemble (NUE) and became operational on 18 January. These ensemble fields, along with the Canadian global ensemble fields, are available on the NCEP NOMADS web server. In order to maximize the benefits from this effort, there is a need to accelerate the acceptance and integration of probabilistic products into the Tri-Agencies’ weather activities. The NUOPC research and development requirements workshop was held in August 2010 (http://www.dtcenter.org/events/workshops10/nuopc/index.php ) highlighted the need for better tools to support forecaster and user decision making. The two top research and development priorities identified by the workshop and approved by the Tri-Agency NUOPC Principals are:
1. Research to support decision making including:
a. use of ensemble/probabilistic forecast information
b. communicating forecast certainty/uncertainty
c. propagating quantitative certainty/uncertainty into downstream
applications
d. developing decision support tools
2. Marketing infrastructure and associated research to:
a. assess user needs
b. quantify value
c. present and improve products
Contacts
- Scott Sandgathe sandgathe@apl.washington.edu Co-chair
- Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) Logistics
Format
The workshop is intended to increase interaction between providers, developers and users of ensemble-based forecast products. Presentations will be grouped into several small sessions with discussions and breakout sessions following each group of presentations. These sessions will include:
- Presentations by forecasters/operators/users on how they currently use
ensembles, products they use, products they don’t use, products they would
like to see developed, comments on training. Thoughts on how ensembles/
probabilistic products could benefit users.
- Presentations by NCEP, AFWA, FNMOC and university groups on available
products and products being tested.
- Presentations by developers on potential products.
Presentation sessions will be arranged such that discussion sessions will follow each set of presentations to extract maximum value from presentations and attendees.
Workshop output
- A list of user needs for products or specific user issues- Specific comments on operational or developmental products
- Establishment of small user/developer teams for further collaboration
- Suggestions on how to establish a continuous product improvement cycle
through evaluation and feedback
Recommendation of products for new/further development
Agenda
Tuesday 31 May
1230 Registration
1300 Welcome
- Admin – NOAA Sand Point/Steve Warren
- NUOPC Status – Dave McCarren
- Workshop Goals – Scott Sandgathe
1400 SESSION I: OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS
- Operational centers and mesoscale ensemble groups present overview of
operational system and details on products currently being provided. These
will include ensemble configuration (briefly), availability of data and products
(location, time, access), known problems, verification, future plans, and current
products (briefly). Additional details on products can be provided on posters.
1400 USAF Operational Products and User comments:
Evan Kuchera, Air Force AFWA
1430 Navy Operational Products: Charles Skupniewicz, FNMOC
1500 Break
1520 NCEP Operational Products and Comments on NOAA User Workshop,
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA NWS NCEP
1550 BUFFKIT, Ed Mahoney, Chief, Warning Decision Training Branch, NOAA
1610 The UW Mesoscale ensemble system, Cliff Mass, UW Atmos
1630 Discussion of operational products
1730 Reception
Wednesday 1 June
0800 Coffee, tea, light breakfast
0830 SESSION II: DEVELOPMENTAL AND USER PRODUCTS
0830 Navy ensemble ocean products: Coelho/Lunde, NAVO
0850 EKDMOS, John Wagner, MDL
0910 Probcast, David Jones, APL UW
0930 HMT, HWT ensemble products, Barbara Brown, NCAR DTC
0950 The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Ensemble Testbed (DET):
Current status, future plans, Brian Etherton, ESRL DET
1010 Break
1030 Poster session on products (what, how to use, accuracy)
1120 Forecaster lead discussion on use of operational products
1200 Lunch
1300 SESSION II: PRODUCTS IN DEVELOPMENT
- Development laboratory, university, and private industry brief overviews of
ensemble-related research and technology including post processing and
metrics. Products in development will be introduced for later discussion at
poster sessions. Presentations will be 5 to 15 minutes depending on number
of presenters.
1300 Translating ensembles into user products: Matthias Steiner, NCAR RAL
1320 Ensemble product suggestions, Richard Grumm, Chief Scientist,
WFO State College, PA
1340 Guidance on guidance: Why the uncertainty looks the way it does,
Jim Hansen, NRL
1400 Real-time Ensemble Analysis and Display System: An Academic's
Vision, Steve Mullen, UA
1420 AWC Ensemble Products, Amy Harless, NOAA/NWS/Aviation
Weather Center
1440 Break
1500 Challenges and Rewards of Decision Tools That Use Probabilistic
Weather Forecasts, Tony Eckel, NOAA OST
1600 Forecaster lead discussion on products in development
1700 Adjourn
1830 Dinner TBD
Thursday 2 June
0800 Coffee, tea, light breakfast
0830 SESSION III: FORECASTER USE & VIEWS ON ENSEMBLES
- Presentations by forecasters/operators/users on how they currently use
ensembles, products they use, products they don’t use, products they would
like to see developed, locally developed products, comments on training.
Thoughts on how ensembles/probabilistic products could benefit users.
– 15 to 20 minute presentations by NOAA NWS, Navy, AF, university, and
private industry users/forecasters.
0830 Shadow Forecast Experiment, FWC Norfolk
0850 FWC Norfolk,Thoughts on ensembles
0910 Thoughts on ensembles/ probabilistic forecasts, Kirby Cook,
WFO Seattle
0930 JTWC use of ensemble products, Matthew Kucas,
Joint Typhoon Warning Center, HI
0950 HPC use of ensemble products: Dan Petersen, NWS/HPC
Forecast Operations
- Discussion of user presentations
1030 Break
1050 SESSION IV: USER IMPACT AND OUTREACH
- Presentations on user outreach, assessing impact and presentations on end
user understanding
1050 Verification statistics: information and user value, Steven Weijs,
Delft Univ of Tech, The Netherlands
1110 User interpretations of prob forecasts, Sonya Savelli,
Univ of Washington, Psych Dept
1200 Lunch
1300 SESSION V: FUTURE
- Discussion of automated and semi-automated products and how forecasters
of the future will use probabilistic products and provide probabilistic
information.
Keynote Presentation: The future of probabilistic forecasting, Cliff Mass,
University of Washington
1330 Panel Discussion: NOAA, Navy, University, USAF reps
1430 Break
1450 Working group discussion on maintaining User/Developer interaction and
future directions
1615 Working groups report - Group 1, Group 2
1700 Final comments/Adjourn
1730 EXECUTIVE SESSION for NUOPC Staff, Program managers, Agency Liaisons
Venue
The workshop will be held at the NOAA Western Regional Center (Sand Point Facility) in Seattle, WA.
Driving directions from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (approximately 35 minutes)
Map of NOAA Sand Point (Workshop will be held in Building 9)
Driving directions from Silver Cloud Inn to NOAA Sand Point
Lodging
Book at the Silver Cloud Inn - University District for the government lodging rate of $139 per night for a room with two queen beds and $129 per night for a room with one king bed. The Silver Cloud is located at 5036 25th Avenue NE in Seattle. You can make reservations with them at http://www.silvercloud.com/university.php or at 800.205.6940. The Group Name is NUOPC, Password is NUOPC. Click here for specific information on HOW TO MAKE A CORPORATE/GROUP RESERVATION ON-LINE or BY PHONE.
Transportation
The Silver Cloud Inn also provides shuttle service within a three mile radius of the hotel, which includes the NOAA Sand Point facility.
Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the workshop.
Please provide the following contact information.
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Name to be used for Name Badge:
Registration is free. This workshop is sponsored by the National Weather Service, Oceanographer of the Navy and Air Force Weather.