DTC & NUOPC Ensemble Design Workshop
- About
- Schedule
- Logistics
- Registration & Remote Information
Date
10 - 12 September 2012
Location
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Foothills Lab Campus
EOL Atrium
3450 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, Colorado 80301
Overview
This workshop will consider science issues governing the optimal use and configurations of single and multi-model ensembles (MMEs) at all scales and the simulation, quantification and presentation of forecast uncertainty. It is being jointly sponsored by the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) and the Ensemble Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Ensemble Task (DET) and will help to drive future scientific work and operational configurations. The focus of the workshop is on the design of the core of a multi-model ensemble prediction system (EPS), which includes simulation of forecast uncertainty (from both the analysis and the model), post processing of raw ensemble output, and verification of probabilistic forecast skill. The scope also includes all scales of motion (both global and regional modeling, and/or a combination thereof via adaptive grids) and all time scales including short (0-3days), medium (4 – 20 days) and up to and including inter-seasonal and annual.
Format
The workshop will be broken into five half-day sessions, each session covering a topic of interest. These sessions will begin with three presentations on the topic of that session, including one invited talk. Following the talks, there will be group discussion to address session questions or additional questions arising from the talks.
1. MONDAY MORNING: Simulation of Model Uncertainty: Relative scientific merits and drawbacks of the multi-model vs stochastic forcing using a single-model framework.
Questions: What are the relative merits and drawbacks of MME approaches versus ensemble prediction with a unified model? Empirically, what evidence is there to support each approach? Scientifically what justification is there to support the idea that one or the other is sound? What experiments need to be performed to clarify what approach should be embraced for future systems? How do we weigh scientific benefit versus computational cost?
2. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Simulation of Model Uncertainty: Solutions. Given the discussions of the morning session, how can present ensemble systems advance to enable representation of model uncertainty?
Questions: What aspects of the MME should be replicated in a single model context (if any)? What does one have to do to a global or regional ensemble to get it to mimic the multi-model distribution, and what is the physical implication? What could be done to the GFS or NOGAPS model (or COAMPS, WRF ARW or NMMB, in regional applications) to get it to mimic the multi-model distribution, and how would that method differ from model to model? What fraction of the MME value comes from the multi analysis initial distribution of ensemble members and ensemble initial perturbations, and what fraction from the different models?
3. TUESDAY MORNING: Basic Configuration: MME issues. Given the discussions of the previous day, how can ensembles systems such as NAEFS, NUE and SREF deal with model uncertainty.
Questions: Is the only practical solution to address model uncertainty individually in each model independent of other models? Does one model say anything about the model uncertainty of a second model? Do two models? Do three model ensembles say anything about the uncertainty of a fourth? Do previous model runs (12h old or 24h old) allow us to reconfigure the ensemble to better understand/deal with model uncertainty?
4. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Basic Configuration: Determine how to objectively tune ensemble design aspects such as number of members, forecast length, model resolution, update frequency, etc. in order to optimally use existing computing resources in meeting the needs of the end users.
Questions: What makes sense for our existing, evolving multi-model ensembles (NUOPC and SREF)? Is an equal number of members from each model the correct number of members? NUOPC specific: Do the operational centers all reduce to 15 members if NCEP starts running FIM as a global ensemble? Should the NCEP SREF, or other regional ensembles, make similar decisions? Is there actually a way to evolve the three or four global models toward a single system running at three centers? Should we try to evolve toward a single system? Additionally – should mesoscale ensemble systems move toward a single model paradigm?
5. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Verification and Post Processing
a) Determine if current metrics (when properly employed) sufficiently evaluate the skill
and value of probabilistic predictions such that the results can be used to
effectively guide further advancements.
b) Determine if standards for applying the metrics and guidance on analysis and
interpretation are sufficient to promote optimal use of the metrics.
c) Determine the best approach(es) for application in an operational setting.
d) For a multi-model ensemble, determine what post processing techniques can
identify and remove artificial clustering.
6. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: EXECUTIVE SESSIONS: Funding, Organization, and Leadership. Discussion of workshop results and how to move ensemble initiatives and recommendations forward. Discussion of post processing options.
Contacts
- Scott Sandgathe, NUOPC sandgathe@apl.washington.edu Co-chair
- Brian Etherton, Ensemble DTC brian.etherton@noaa.gov Co-chair
- Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) Logistics
SCHEDULE
Day One
9:00 Welcoming Remarks
9:10 Workshop Introduction
9:20-12:30 First Session: Simulation of Model Uncertainty
12:30 Lunch
13:30-17:30 Second Session: Simulation of Model Uncertainty
17:30 Adjourn
Day 2
9:00-12:00 Third Session: Basic Configuration
12:00 Lunch
13:00-17:30 Fourth Session: Basic Configuration
17:30 Adjourn
Day 3
9:00-12:00 Fifth Session: Verification and Post Processing
13:00-17:30 EXECUTIVE SESSIONS
Special Lodging Deals
Millennium Harvest House Boulder
1345 28th Street
Boulder, CO 80302
+1 303 443 3850
Government Rate of $109 plus tax.Reservations can be made in the following four ways.
On-Line: Make reservations via the internet:
Ensemble Workshop
Website: http://www.millenniumhotels.com/boulder
Select Group Code, located under the Corp/Promo Code and use the following code:
1209ENSEMB
E-Mail: Guests may e-mail their reservation request to millboulderres@mill-usa.com
Fax: Guests may fax their reservation request to (303) 442-3821 using the attached fax information page. Word doc form
Telephone: Guests may call the hotel toll free at (800) 545-6285 and refer to the group code.
The room block will be available for booking until Friday, August 17, 2012
Travel Links
The workshop will be held at the NCAR Foothills Lab, 3450 Mitchell Lane, in Boulder, Colorado. A detailed Boulder Map is available, as well as a more specific NCAR / Hotel map. Below you will find directions from Denver International Airport and transportation links.
When you arrive at Denver International Airport (DIA):
- The DIA website (Denver International Airport)
- Map from Denver International Airport to Boulder
- Boulder Map
Transportation between the Denver International Airport and Boulder
About Boulder:
- Things to see and do while you are in Boulder
Transportation
Transportation via NCAR shuttle will be provided each morning and evening to the hotel listed. Please indicate on your registration form if you plan to use this service.
REGISTRATION
Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the meeting.
Please provide the following contact information.
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Name to be used for Name Badge:
Will you be using the NCAR Shuttle?
REMOTE INFORMATION - The meeting will be available for remote attendance by GoToMeeting.
If you'd like to participate remotely, email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu)
to register.
Please provide the following contact information.
Specify REMOTE ATTENDANCE
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Country:
GoToMeeting Information:
Will be provided at a later time.